I certainly hope you haven't come here with your mind already made up.

August 18, 2007
THE MARKETS are TEETERING

Looks to me like the financial markets are starting to behave like the peak before the bubble bursts. It's an amazing tribute to the efficacy of the world economy that the U.S. economy has gone this long in the face of our excesses in real estate valuation and our trade deficit. We've been depending on the Chinese government to buy at least as many new bonds as the huge amounts they hold come to maturity. Any time their plans change, and their form of government gives them the freedom to make such changes for reasons of their own which may not be apparent to us, we could be significantly affected. Our Federal Reserve has tried its best to maintain stability in the markets by manipulating the various interest rates it controls in order to keep a balance between economic growth and moderate inflation. It occurs to me that another factor has grown up to be as strong a psychological determinant of personal and business economic decisions besides interest rates, and that is the price of energy, especially gasoline. I've noticed that the rising and falling of gasoline prices is not proportional to the wanderings of the world price of crude oil. I assume that the invisible cabal between this administration and the oil industry is trying their best to use their pricing power to supplement the Fed's actions in trying to keep the economy rolling. It's not a method that seems to benefit the American auto industry, which is falling from the key role it used to play in the success of the American economy.

Sunday, July 23, 2006
HEZBOLLAH DOESN'T PLAY FAIR

Taking advantage of the Israelis vulnerability in the midst of the Gaza soldier kidnapping incident, Hezbollah stepped right over the line and grossly violated the border agreements carefully delineated by UN resolution defining the territorial separation between Lebanon and Israel.
There's an unprecedented international criticism of Hezbollah for disturbing the peace, such as it was. The Israeli response to clear a wide no-man's land free of rocket launching capabilities intends to underline the costs to the Lebanese economy of allowing Hezbollah to operate as a rogue state within the state.

Thursday, June 15, 2006
LONG HIATUS

I haven't felt like writing for a couple of years, ever since George W. won the 2004 election. His conduct of the nation's affairs has more than fulfilled my worst fears for the future well being of the world. I might as well just plunge into it. You gotta' start somewhere...
The elimination of Abu Musab al-Zarqawi was the first serious bit of traction that I've noticed in the Iraq war for ages. Revenge is not a good responsive practice, but that guy was especially ethicless, I thought. Suicide bombing is a weird concept, and the clerics that promote it could hardly be deriving the theory from a very holy source. For those to whom life on earth becomes intolerable, there ought to be a condoned exit strategy -- we have the Golden Gate Bridge in northern California-- but it is perverse to attach political murders onto that urge.

Thursday, October 28, 2004
LOOKING FOR SIGNS

From today's NewYorkTimes:

In Toledo, Mr. Kerry took the time to revel in the Red Sox's winning the World Series last night in St. Louis, their first World Series championship since 1918. Mr. Kerry, who has represented Massachusetts in the Senate since 1985, appeared in a Boston cap this morning and drew some parallels between his campaign and the Red Sox.

He said that about a year ago, "when things weren't going so well in my campaign,'' some skeptics about his political fortunes said, "John Kerry won't be president until the Red Sox win the World Series.''

As the crowd cheered, Mr. Kerry grabbed his hat, and holding it aloft, said: "We're on our way! We're on our way!''

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Thursday, October 21, 2004

I can hardly believe it has been a year since I gave up on my 'blog. The war left me somewhat devoid of the optimism that I've had all my life. Not just the war, but the astounding chutzpah of Bush and his gang, who are not limited by truth, to spin a new tale every day that shamelessly promotes the gain of the group they identify as their own, against the interests of their fellow Americans, against the interests of the political and ecological well-being of the small planet Earth that we live on, and especially against the interests of the vast numbers of people of other cultures, other faiths, other customs, whom they seem quite sure are not as important as they are, and their measure is that they are very good at playing the game of capitalism, although that is only one of the many intricate games that play out over the face of the earth right now, therefore they are deemed "better" by the gods of money; and they are brazen enough to claim that they work toward a worthy goal of "spreading democracy" when what they really mean is that they insist others live by the rules of capitalism.

I'm not saying that there is a better system at the present time to keep the commercial infrastructure of the world running smoothly. But that is not to confuse capitalism with the higher values that civilizations have worked toward for thousands of years.

The brightest hope for the day lies in the defeat of the Yankees by the Boston Red Sox, John Kerry's home team. After the Yankees had won the first three games of the seven game series, the odds against the Red Sox winning all of the next four games must have been about 100 to one. Those odds are far, far worse than Kerry's chances to win the presidency have ever been. Therefore, I find sustenance for my hope that he will win the election, in the Red Sox's victory.

WEDNESDAY, OCTOBER 6, 2004

"Cheney slip sends Net surfers to anti-Bush site


WASHINGTON (AP) -- All he wanted were the facts. But Dick Cheney ended up generating confusion-- and lots of it.

A slip of the tongue by the vice president during Tuesday night's debate with Sen. John Edwards led Web surfers to a site run by George Soros, a billionaire who makes no secret of his opposition to the Bush administration.

In answering a question about his involvement with Halliburton, Cheney meant to direct people to FactCheck.org, a nonpartisan site run by the University of Pennsylvania's Annenberg Public Policy Center. He urged people watching the debate to go to the site for facts countering Edwards' statements about the corporation Cheney used to run.

But Cheney cited FactCheck.com, a for-profit advertising site based in the Cayman Islands.

The company decided to redirect traffic to the Soros site after it became inundated with hits -- about 100 a second after the debate, John Berryhill, a Philadelphia lawyer for FactCheck.com, said Wednesday.

"This was to relieve stress on the service and to express a political point of view," said Berryhill, who spoke with the site's administrators shortly after the debate ended.

They picked Soros not only for his political views, Berryhill said, but because the billionaire could afford the costly deluge of hits the site would receive in the wake of the debate. Plus, the site administrators didn't want to point surfers to a candidate's site that was asking for money.

Web site operators typically pay fees to the companies that host their sites. The more hits a site receives, the more its operator pays.

Soros was not advised of the switch and did not know it had taken place until Wednesday, said a spokesman, Jeremy Ben-Ami.

"We are as surprised as anyone by this turn of events but certainly encourage voters to visit both of these valuable sites," Michael Vachon, a senior aide to Soros, said in a statement.

An unprecedented number of visitors to FactCheck.org caused the site to crash several times Wednesday, said Brooks Jackson, the site's director.

Copyright 2004 The Associated Press. All rights reserved.This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten, or redistributed.



Find this article at:
http://www.cnn.com/2004/ALLPOLITICS/10/06/debate.website.ap/index.html"

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Friday, October 10, 2003

Well, it's been months since I was in the mood to share my thoughts with this diary/blog. The war transitioned into its version of a Middle-Eastern-snipers-vs.-policing action with permanently adversarial factions, and drags onward.
Then this week the comedic Caleephoneyah recall election consummated, with the picture of Sargent and Eunice Shriver, their daughter Maria, and this large, innocent faced action figure posing together as a Kennedy-like political family. I'm sure there will be much to muse upon while watching Arnold face off against the problems of our state, a state which generally has been the conceiving and proving grounds for the evolution of American popular culture, trends and tastes. Are we in the forefront of the coming clash between the promises of the New Deal and the deficiency in the Social Security Trust Fund? Once again, the election results by county suggest that there should be a separate state of Northwestern California, one which Arnold would not rule.
Today I read something which for the first time in months inspired me to post a new thought. Perhaps my mental gridlock is broken. A study has shown that the gender ratio of births seems to be influenced by economic conditions. Periods of economic stress produce an increase of females over males, compared to better economic times.

Is there a way to understand what is going on in the world today while keeping an open mind, and resisting the temptation to dig in to a labeled position, either dove or hawk, either liberal or conservative? The fundamental premise of Western Civilization, that everyone values [their] life, seems no longer to be universally presumed, and so all the ways we grew up thinking are not sufficient.

Wednesday June 4, 2003
The most influential man in the world.

President Bush has gone for one of the first trips in his life outside of the USA. He's enjoying his newfound, if temporary, influence in the wake of a fresh victory. Is he beginning to notice that the diplomats of other nations are no more prone to simply forgive and forget than he is? America's recent crass flaunting of the longstanding traditions of diplomacy which are largely responsible for the peace amongst the great nations in recent decades will have consequences for years. It would be easy to guess that those nations who feel that they were insulted by the Bush administration will be titillated by our failures, privately giggling and pointing to us... and Iraq could be teetering between failure and success for many years.

Tuesday April 8th
Saddam joins Elvis

I haven't been able to get myself to write for weeks- the hovering unease of a war overtaking the media pervades daily life. Today the image byte for history was created: Iraqi citizens daring to tie a rope around the neck of the largest Saddam statue in the heart of Baghdad, sledgehammering away at its concrete base, but needing the help of the Marines and a huge U.S. tank-tow-truck to pull the statue over. This unleashes for the first time a flurry of open affection for the invaders and the daring to curse Saddam, even though the crowd contains Baath party regulars and Republican Guard in civilian clothes.
Saddam was said to be bombed yesterday, yet today there are reports that he was seen leaving the target area. Was the claim of having obliterated him a propaganda response to the ridiculous press conferences the Iraqi Information Minister has been conducting, practically within sighting distance of the U.S. tanks, where he has claimed that any reports of succesful invasion have been lies? (i.e. if you want to make extravagant claims, we will simply make even more extravagant ones.) Or was his extermination true, and the claim of his sighting a propaganda second thought when it was realized that if he were to be proven dead, there would be a world outcry to stop the war in that case, according to journalist Thomas Ricks.*
But there is still half of the regime still alive: the tyrannicalBaath party supporters, and loyal Special Republican Guard. The fanatical Fedayeen Saddam.whose name translates to "Saddam's Men of Sacrifice," watch over everyone like the brown shirts of Nazi Germany. Prone to sniping and unconventional warfare, they also put pressure on his troops not to surrender. The war plan requires that these groups be decimated further, if there is to be any chance of stabilizing the huge country enough to exist on its own. Therefore, we can expect to hear rumors of Saddam sightings far into the future.

Tuesday March 18
Does he or doesn't he

I imagine that Saddam's dilemma today is whether to use chemical or biological agents on the massing US troops before they get to Baghdad, or to desist in order to convince the world that he never had them, and the major premise that Bush based his attack upon was invalid.

Monday March 17
Smells like Fish

The war council met on a beautiful island. Doesn't seem to be any way out except to begin the war. Colin Powell was the most righteous in the administration and convinced others to go to the U.N. in September, but now it looks like the French tricked him into the present dilemma, where the U.S. loses face if it doesn't proceed since it sent the troops to back the diplomacy with a credible threat, and the coalition of the willing degraded into a coalition of the billing, and now into nobody much but us.
There was a rather strange story on the front page of Saturday's N.Y.Times about a fish that was heard to speak. Why did this possible prank get such prime exposure? I think it was the only context in which the Times could express the other half of the possible outcomes without seeming unsupportive or unpatriotic. The fishmongers heard the carp uttering warnings and commands in Hebrew.
"It said `Tzaruch shemirah' and `Hasof bah,' which essentially means that everyone needs to account for themselves because the end is near."

Friday March 14
So Hard to Build, so Easy to Destroy

The most perfect condition of peace in the world that we can hope for would be a careful arrangement of all of the interests of every nation and major group, balanced between wishes and willingness to compromise, a very good looking structure that would have the approximate sturdiness of a House of Cards. This idyllic condition would be subject to winds or gusts of hot air which could be expected to constantly threaten its stability. That would not detract from the calmness and happiness that this structure could radiate to the people of the earth.
Such a condition could only be built upon earnest truth, recognizing human vulnerability, and a commitment to the highest principles found universally in the belief systems of mankind.
Last September 12th President Bush spoke eloquently to the U.N. Security Council about disarming Saddam, and moved that body to adopt Resolution 1441 unanimously. He put another story of cards onto the rising House of the world's hopes. But soon thereafter he put aside that script once again and dove for his phrase of comfort, "regime change," which seems to make the majority of people in the world's democracies think of avenging his father, controlling oil, favoritism toward Israel, NOT securing the safety of America.
The credibility gap lies between the justifiable concept of Disarmament and the authoritarian demand for Regime Change. The link between the need for these two has not been proven beyond all shadow of doubt, and the leader who insists he knows the will of Gºd is more likely to sneeze and blow down the entire House of Cards than ever to understand the delicate history of diplomacy in the twentieth century which made the world more peaceful than it ever was, for a short glorious time.
George W. by claiming he knows Gºd's Will, identifies himself with the other fundamentalist rulers in the world, rather than with the democratic ones.
Flip a coin. On one side, George; on the other, Saddam. Heads, they win--tails, we lose.

Wednesday March 12
Toto, we're not in Kansas anymore...

This ain't Texas, where maybe you can strut around, toting a six-gun and wearing a wry smile, doing what you can to help your friends make more money, and call it being in charge.
Even Chuck Hagel, Republican senator on the Foreign Relations Committee, said it could take years to repair the damage to diplomatic relationships with our allies which has been done by disrespectful comments and we-don't-need-you-for-this attitudes from the administration.** Isn't terrorism prevention the real priority? Well, we do need them for that, don't we.

March 11
You're Betting My Future

It's a complex situation, not easy to reduce to a simple choice between War and Peace at this point. All will depend on the outcome, and it is a brash bet by Bush. The brave are to be admired, but I resent a leader who is betting with my future more than he is betting with his own.

March 10th
The French

This U.S. administration has made many, many mistakes which have unnecessarily offended dignified statesmen all over the world. Still, I'm disappointed in France's threat to veto any measure approving the use of force against Saddam Hussein. The French position tips me off that they have been benefiting mightily from business dealings with Iraq during the long recent period of supposed UN embargo--business deals that would not survive in an open market with fair competition, rather ones that were protected by other nations' unwillingness to benefit the tyrant. The French have begun to seem so desperate in their illogic that I can think of no other explanation for their precluding in advance maintaining the threat of force even as a stick to encourage Saddam to disarm. I don't buy that their position today comes from any historic anti-Semitism; I think they are simply snooty about other cultures in general. It is sad because their position, though it will let them gloat if there is a war that goes awry, is leading a cadre of European nations, large and small, into a dilemma because it wants to be the leader of Europe. They are so incensed about the American position that they aren't considering how they might be looked at by a new Iraqi government for not helping in their liberation if that occurs.

Read OUR PREDICTION which came true FOR THE 2000 US Presidential Election

footnotes: *Thomas Ricks of the Washington Post, on The Charlie Rose Show, PBS, 4/8/03
**Senator Hagel on Charlie Rose Show, PBS, 3/11/03